--- title: "Sword and Scandal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sword and Scandal ($76.84) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 113.59% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e rendered: 2026-11-12T07:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sword and Scandal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sword and Scandal A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e?window=all) Price · $76.84 · 128,008 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $69.15 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 113.59% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min -0.5% 100.0% 200.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 1.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e?window=7d) | 12 | 83.37% ±99.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e) | 16 | 113.59% ±86.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e?window=all) | 16 | 113.59% ±86.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Ruby-Encrusted Dagger other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-encrusted-dagger) | 1 in 100 | $770 1,282,820 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Chef's knife (Adamantium) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/chefs-knife-adamantium) | 1 in 40 | $549 914,634 BUX | 19.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Palladium Palace other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palladium-palace) | 1 in 29 | $445 741,370 BUX | 22.5% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [Tiny tiara (Diamond) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiny-tiara-diamond) | 1 in 13 | $149 248,234 BUX | 16.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Golden Key other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/golden-key) | 10.0% | $88.00 146,608 BUX | 12.7% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [Knife (Aquamarine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-aquamarine) | 17.5% | $18.25 30,405 BUX | 4.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.43× | | [Dagger (Diamond) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dagger-diamond) | 29.0% | $15.50 25,823 BUX | 6.5% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× | | [Lots Of Coins Of Bronze (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-bronze-metal) | 29.0% | $15.48 25,784 BUX | 6.5% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6e) [Golden Key other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/golden-key) Hidden $76.84 128,008 BUX $88.00 146,608 BUX 1.15x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Knife (Aquamarine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-aquamarine) Hidden $76.84 128,008 BUX $18.25 30,405 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Palladium Palace other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palladium-palace) Hidden $76.84 128,008 BUX $445 741,370 BUX 5.79x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Dagger (Diamond) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dagger-diamond) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $76.84 128,008 BUX $15.50 25,823 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Dagger (Diamond) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dagger-diamond) Hidden $76.84 128,008 BUX $15.50 25,823 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Knife (Aquamarine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-aquamarine) Hidden $76.84 128,008 BUX $18.25 30,405 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Golden Key other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/golden-key) Hidden $76.84 128,008 BUX $88.00 146,608 BUX 1.15x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Lots Of Coins Of Bronze (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-bronze-metal) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $76.84 128,008 BUX $15.48 25,784 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Knife (Aquamarine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-aquamarine) Hidden $76.84 128,008 BUX $18.25 30,405 BUX 0.24x 2026-11-07 12:41 UTC [Dagger (Diamond) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dagger-diamond) Hidden $76.84 128,008 BUX $15.50 25,823 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-07 12:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $76.84 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 1.0% Restricted 2.5% Covert 3.5% Classified 17.5% Mil Spec Grade 75.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt