--- title: "Mystic Moonlight case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystic Moonlight ($46.48) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 40.98% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f rendered: 2026-11-12T07:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Mystic Moonlight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Mystic Moonlight A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f?window=all) Price · $46.48 · 77,433 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $41.83 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 40.98% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 98.8% 198.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f?window=7d) | 12 | 40.98% ±156.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f) | 12 | 40.98% ±156.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f?window=all) | 12 | 40.98% ±156.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Bracelet (Sapphire) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $890 1,482,740 BUX | 21.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Labyrinth (Lapis Lazuli) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/labyrinth-lapis-lazuli) | 1 in 50 | $537 894,642 BUX | 25.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) | 1 in 33 | $375 624,750 BUX | 26.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) | 1 in 13 | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 8.2% | 3 | 1.0 | — | | [Gems of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-sapphire-gemstone) | 1 in 11 | $32.56 54,250 BUX | 7.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [Clarity Cube (Cobalt) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/clarity-cube-cobalt) | 10.0% | $29.00 48,314 BUX | 6.9% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/locket-lapis-lazuli) | 27.0% | $5.00 8,330 BUX | 3.2% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× | | [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) | 40.0% | $0.80 1,333 BUX | 0.8% | 5 | 4.8 | 1.04× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e6f) [Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/locket-lapis-lazuli) Hidden $46.48 77,433 BUX $5.00 8,330 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Gems of Sapphire (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-sapphire-gemstone) Hidden $46.48 77,433 BUX $32.56 54,250 BUX 0.70x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) Hidden $46.48 77,433 BUX $0.80 1,333 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $46.48 77,433 BUX $0.80 1,333 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) Hidden $46.48 77,433 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-07 15:30 UTC [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) Hidden $46.48 77,433 BUX $0.80 1,333 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-07 15:30 UTC [Clarity Cube (Cobalt) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/clarity-cube-cobalt) Hidden $46.48 77,433 BUX $29.00 48,314 BUX 0.62x 2026-11-07 15:30 UTC [Clarity Cube (Cobalt) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/clarity-cube-cobalt) [user-6b253c](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-6b253c) $46.48 77,433 BUX $29.00 48,314 BUX 0.62x 2026-11-07 15:30 UTC [Nugget (Nickel) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nugget-nickel) Hidden $46.48 77,433 BUX $0.80 1,333 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) Hidden $46.48 77,433 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $46.48 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 10.0% Restricted 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 3.0% Consumer Grade 35.0% Industrial Grade 50.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt