--- title: "Champagne Caper case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Champagne Caper ($64.60) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 53.28% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Champagne Caper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Champagne Caper A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70?window=all) Price · $64.60 · 107,623 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $58.14 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.28% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min -0.5% 71.8% 144.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70?window=7d) | 20 | 53.28% ±90.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70) | 20 | 53.28% ±90.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70?window=all) | 20 | 53.28% ±90.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Golden Sunglasses other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/golden-sunglasses) | 1 in 400 | $2,100 3,498,600 BUX | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [500 Gold Ring (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/500-gold-ring-gold) | 1 in 57 | $500 833,000 BUX | 15.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Ruby-Infused Wine Goblet other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-infused-wine-goblet) | 1 in 33 | $350 583,100 BUX | 18.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $130 216,580 BUX | 11.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Griffin Goblet (Gold) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/griffin-goblet-gold) | 10.0% | $75.00 124,950 BUX | 12.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.50× | | [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) | 12.5% | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 9.5% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× | | [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) | 12.5% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 9.2% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× | | [Gems of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-citrine-quartz) | 55.0% | $15.94 26,550 BUX | 15.1% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e70) [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) Hidden $64.60 107,623 BUX $44.00 73,304 BUX 0.68x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Gems of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-citrine-quartz) Hidden $64.60 107,623 BUX $15.94 26,550 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) Hidden $64.60 107,623 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Gems of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-citrine-quartz) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $64.60 107,623 BUX $15.94 26,550 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Griffin Goblet (Gold) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/griffin-goblet-gold) Hidden $64.60 107,623 BUX $75.00 124,950 BUX 1.16x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [Gems of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-citrine-quartz) Hidden $64.60 107,623 BUX $15.94 26,550 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [Gems of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/gems-of-citrine-quartz) Hidden $64.60 107,623 BUX $15.94 26,550 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $64.60 107,623 BUX $44.00 73,304 BUX 0.68x 2026-11-09 21:42 UTC [Griffin Goblet (Gold) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/griffin-goblet-gold) Hidden $64.60 107,623 BUX $75.00 124,950 BUX 1.16x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) Hidden $64.60 107,623 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-07 12:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $64.60 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 0.3% Covert 4.8% Industrial Grade 5.0% Classified 65.0% Restricted 12.5% Consumer Grade 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt