--- title: "Light as Air case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Light as Air ($126.48) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 51.57% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Light as Air](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Light as Air A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71?window=all) Price · $126.48 · 210,708 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $113.83 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 51.57% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 68.3% 137.0% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71?window=7d) | 8 | 51.57% ±84.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71) | 8 | 51.57% ±84.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71?window=all) | 8 | 51.57% ±84.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Pegasus Prism (Pearl) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pegasus-prism-pearl) | 1 in 20 | $700 1,166,200 BUX | 30.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Rocks Of Opal (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-opal-silica-mineral) | 10.0% | $214 357,200 BUX | 18.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Coin From The Lost City (Mythril) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-from-the-lost-city-mythril) | 10.5% | $199 331,534 BUX | 18.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) | 12.5% | $143 238,238 BUX | 15.7% | 1 | 1.0 | 1.00× | | [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) | 15.0% | $77.00 128,282 BUX | 10.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [Pin (Palladium) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pin-palladium) | 17.5% | $36.00 59,976 BUX | 5.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Rose Quartz Ring (Quartz) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rose-quartz-ring-quartz) | 29.5% | $2.60 4,332 BUX | 0.7% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e71) [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) Hidden $126 210,708 BUX $143 238,238 BUX 1.13x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Rocks Of Opal (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-opal-silica-mineral) Hidden $126 210,708 BUX $214 357,200 BUX 1.70x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Rose Quartz Ring (Quartz) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rose-quartz-ring-quartz) Hidden $126 210,708 BUX $2.60 4,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) Hidden $126 210,708 BUX $77.00 128,282 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Rose Quartz Ring (Quartz) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rose-quartz-ring-quartz) Hidden $126 210,708 BUX $2.60 4,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) Hidden $126 210,708 BUX $77.00 128,282 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Rose Quartz Ring (Quartz) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rose-quartz-ring-quartz) Hidden $126 210,708 BUX $2.60 4,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Rose Quartz Ring (Quartz) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rose-quartz-ring-quartz) Hidden $126 210,708 BUX $2.60 4,332 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $126 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 38.0% Consumer Grade 12.5% Industrial Grade 44.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt