--- title: "Basket Bounty case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Basket Bounty ($51.57) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 82.68% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Basket Bounty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Basket Bounty A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72?window=all) Price · $51.57 · 85,921 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $46.42 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.68% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 2.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 2.5% 111.5% 220.5% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72?window=7d) | 8 | 111.48% ±108.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72) | 20 | 82.68% ±68.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72?window=all) | 20 | 82.68% ±68.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Chef's knife (Adamantium) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/chefs-knife-adamantium) | 1 in 67 | $549 914,634 BUX | 17.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Origami Swan (Tungsten) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/origami-swan-tungsten) | 1 in 40 | $220 366,520 BUX | 11.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) | 1 in 17 | $143 238,238 BUX | 18.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) | 1 in 13 | $130 216,580 BUX | 22.4% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.50× | | [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) | 12.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 11.1% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [Copper Kettle other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-kettle) | 20.0% | $18.98 31,621 BUX | 8.2% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× | | [Teaspoon (Tungsten) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/teaspoon-tungsten) | 50.0% | $9.49 15,810 BUX | 10.2% | 10 | 10.0 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e72) [Teaspoon (Tungsten) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/teaspoon-tungsten) Hidden $51.57 85,921 BUX $9.49 15,810 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Teaspoon (Tungsten) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/teaspoon-tungsten) Hidden $51.57 85,921 BUX $9.49 15,810 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) Hidden $51.57 85,921 BUX $143 238,238 BUX 2.77x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Teaspoon (Tungsten) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/teaspoon-tungsten) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $51.57 85,921 BUX $9.49 15,810 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Copper Kettle other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-kettle) Hidden $51.57 85,921 BUX $18.98 31,621 BUX 0.37x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Teaspoon (Tungsten) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/teaspoon-tungsten) Hidden $51.57 85,921 BUX $9.49 15,810 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $51.57 85,921 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 2.52x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $51.57 85,921 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 2.52x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $51.57 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 21.5% Exceedingly Rare 2.5% Consumer Grade 68.0% Industrial Grade 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt