--- title: "Northern Nightmares case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Northern Nightmares ($249.07) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73 rendered: 2026-11-12T10:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Northern Nightmares](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Northern Nightmares A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73?window=all) Price · $249.07 · 414,947 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $224.16 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 8.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Couple Of Unpolished Pearls (Organic Gemstone) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/couple-of-unpolished-pearls-organic-gemstone) | 1 in 400 | $8,900 14,827,400 BUX | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Crystal From An Alien Planet (Lithium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/crystal-from-an-alien-planet-lithium) | 1 in 133 | $5,000 8,330,000 BUX | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rod of Ragnarok (Rhodium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/rod-of-ragnarok-rhodium) | 1 in 67 | $3,300 5,497,800 BUX | 22.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) | 1 in 13 | $599 997,934 BUX | 20.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) | 10.0% | $240 399,840 BUX | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Cube (Tungsten) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cube-tungsten) | 15.0% | $199 331,534 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Pearl Prism Pendant other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-prism-pendant) | 20.0% | $76.00 126,616 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Lots Of Parts of Stone (Rock) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-parts-of-stone-rock) | 45.0% | $2.08 3,464 BUX | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e73) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $249 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 2.5% Classified 7.5% Covert 10.0% Restricted 15.0% Industrial Grade 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 45.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt