--- title: "Restricted Realms case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Restricted Realms ($30.16) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 176.72% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74 rendered: 2026-11-12T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Restricted Realms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Restricted Realms A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74?window=all) Price · $30.16 · 50,244 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $27.14 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 176.72% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min 88.0% 180.3% 272.5% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 2.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74?window=7d) | 18 | 180.25% ±91.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74) | 22 | 176.72% ±82.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74?window=all) | 22 | 176.72% ±82.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Precious Stone of Onyx (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-onyx-gemstone) | 1 in 100 | $531 884,238 BUX | 19.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Oracle Orb (Obsidian) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oracle-orb-obsidian) | 1 in 25 | $165 274,890 BUX | 24.3% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Lots Of Coins Of Chromium (Metal) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-chromium-metal) | 1 in 13 | $42.56 70,910 BUX | 11.8% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Obelisk (Obsidian) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-obsidian) | 10.0% | $34.00 56,644 BUX | 12.5% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [Batch Of Mercury (Liquid) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/batch-of-mercury-liquid) | 12.5% | $25.55 42,560 BUX | 11.8% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.82× | | [Bronze Selfie Stick other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-selfie-stick) | 15.0% | $18.00 29,988 BUX | 9.9% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× | | [Obelisk (Onyx) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-onyx) | 50.0% | $5.50 9,163 BUX | 10.1% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 10:50 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Precious Stone of Onyx (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-onyx-gemstone) [L2light](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/L2light) $30.16 50,244 BUX $531 884,238 BUX 17.60x 2026-11-08 22:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e74) [Obelisk (Onyx) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-onyx) Hidden $30.16 50,244 BUX $5.50 9,163 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Obelisk (Obsidian) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-obsidian) Hidden $30.16 50,244 BUX $34.00 56,644 BUX 1.13x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Bronze Selfie Stick other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-selfie-stick) Hidden $30.16 50,244 BUX $18.00 29,988 BUX 0.60x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Batch Of Mercury (Liquid) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/batch-of-mercury-liquid) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $30.16 50,244 BUX $25.55 42,560 BUX 0.85x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Batch Of Mercury (Liquid) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/batch-of-mercury-liquid) Hidden $30.16 50,244 BUX $25.55 42,560 BUX 0.85x 2026-11-08 22:59 UTC [Precious Stone of Onyx (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-onyx-gemstone) [L2light](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/L2light) $30.16 50,244 BUX $531 884,238 BUX 17.60x 2026-11-08 22:59 UTC [Obelisk (Onyx) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-onyx) Hidden $30.16 50,244 BUX $5.50 9,163 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [Obelisk (Onyx) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-onyx) Hidden $30.16 50,244 BUX $5.50 9,163 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [Obelisk (Onyx) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-onyx) Hidden $30.16 50,244 BUX $5.50 9,163 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC [Obelisk (Obsidian) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-obsidian) [komnuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/komnuu) $30.16 50,244 BUX $34.00 56,644 BUX 1.13x 2026-11-08 09:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $30.16 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 21.0% Restricted 19.0% Industrial Grade 60.0% best hit $531 (17.60x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt