--- title: "Turbulent Twist case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Turbulent Twist ($17.16) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 20.01% over 9 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Turbulent Twist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Turbulent Twist A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76?window=all) Price · $17.16 · 28,587 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $15.44 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 20.01% · 9 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 9 openings · below min since tracking started · 9 openings · below min -0.5% 73.5% 147.5% **Small sample.** 9 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76?window=7d) | 6 | 13.99% ±132.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76) | 9 | 20.01% ±108.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76?window=all) | 9 | 20.01% ±108.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Titan Totem (Titanium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/titan-totem-titanium) | 1 in 1,000 | $300 499,800 BUX | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Origami Swan (Tungsten) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/origami-swan-tungsten) | 1 in 250 | $220 366,520 BUX | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Adamantium Feather other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/adamantium-feather) | 1 in 100 | $143 238,238 BUX | 9.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Playing Cards (Titanium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/playing-cards-titanium) | 1 in 67 | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Dice (Tungsten) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dice-tungsten) | 1 in 50 | $77.00 128,282 BUX | 10.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Tin man's heart other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tin-mans-heart) | 1 in 20 | $49.00 81,634 BUX | 15.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Ninja Star Ornament (Titanium) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ninja-star-ornament-titanium) | 1 in 13 | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 21.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Arrow (Amethyst) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrow-amethyst) | 22.5% | $11.70 19,492 BUX | 17.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× | | [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) | 60.0% | $2.40 4,000 BUX | 9.3% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e76) [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $17.16 28,587 BUX $2.40 4,000 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-07 20:31 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $17.16 28,587 BUX $2.40 4,000 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-07 20:31 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $17.16 28,587 BUX $2.40 4,000 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-07 20:31 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $17.16 28,587 BUX $2.40 4,000 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-07 20:31 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) Hidden $17.16 28,587 BUX $2.40 4,000 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-07 12:18 UTC [Coins Of Steel (Metal) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coins-of-steel-metal) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $17.16 28,587 BUX $2.40 4,000 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-07 12:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $17.16 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 0.1% Exceedingly Rare 0.4% Consumer Grade 23.5% Covert 1.5% Industrial Grade 2.0% Restricted 5.0% Classified 7.5% Mil Spec Grade 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt