--- title: "Geological Pursuit case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Geological Pursuit ($51.66) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 6.78% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Geological Pursuit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Geological Pursuit A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77?window=all) Price · $51.66 · 86,066 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $46.49 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 6.78% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 110.3% 221.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77?window=7d) | 4 | 6.78% ±213.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77) | 4 | 6.78% ±213.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77?window=all) | 4 | 6.78% ±213.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Oculus of Olympus (Opal) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/oculus-of-olympus-opal) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,800 2,998,800 BUX | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) | 1 in 250 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Palladium Palace other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palladium-palace) | 1 in 40 | $445 741,370 BUX | 23.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Oracle Orb (Obsidian) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oracle-orb-obsidian) | 1 in 25 | $165 274,890 BUX | 14.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Lots Of Gems Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-gems-of-zircon-quartz) | 1 in 17 | $100 166,848 BUX | 12.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [A Geologist's Rejected Diamond (Diamond) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/a-geologists-rejected-diamond-diamond) | 1 in 14 | $88.00 146,608 BUX | 13.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Crown (Cobalt) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/crown-cobalt) | 10.0% | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) | 10.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 9.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Gilded Garnet Globe (Garnet) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/gilded-garnet-globe-garnet) | 60.0% | $3.50 5,831 BUX | 4.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e77) [Gilded Garnet Globe (Garnet) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/gilded-garnet-globe-garnet) Hidden $51.66 86,066 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Gilded Garnet Globe (Garnet) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/gilded-garnet-globe-garnet) Hidden $51.66 86,066 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Gilded Garnet Globe (Garnet) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/gilded-garnet-globe-garnet) Hidden $51.66 86,066 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Gilded Garnet Globe (Garnet) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/gilded-garnet-globe-garnet) Hidden $51.66 86,066 BUX $3.50 5,831 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $51.66 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 0.1% Special 0.4% Covert 2.5% Restricted 11.0% Classified 6.0% Industrial Grade 70.0% Consumer Grade 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt