--- title: "Island Betrayal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Island Betrayal ($33.72) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 81.25% over 90 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Island Betrayal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Island Betrayal A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78?window=all) Price · $33.72 · 56,180 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $30.35 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.25% · 90 openings, odds method Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 68 openings · below min 30 days · 90 openings · below min since tracking started · 90 openings · below min 22.5% 93.8% 165.0% **Small sample.** 90 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78?window=7d) | 68 | 97.74% ±66.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78) | 90 | 81.25% ±57.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78?window=all) | 90 | 81.25% ±57.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) | 1 in 667 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 4.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Ruby-Encrusted Dagger other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-encrusted-dagger) | 1 in 286 | $770 1,282,820 BUX | 8.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) | 1 in 200 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 10.7% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [500 Gold Ring (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/500-gold-ring-gold) | 1 in 100 | $500 833,000 BUX | 16.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Palace Pendant (Peridot) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pendant-peridot) | 1 in 33 | $200 333,200 BUX | 19.8% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× | | [Lots Of Gems Of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-gems-of-citrine-quartz) | 1 in 17 | $73.71 122,805 BUX | 14.6% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× | | [Cipher (Citrine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cipher-citrine) | 14.0% | $30.00 49,980 BUX | 13.8% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× | | [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) | 75.0% | $4.38 7,300 BUX | 10.8% | 66 | 67.5 | 0.98× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $649 1,081,234 BUX 19.25x 2026-11-07 21:29 UTC [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) [GGE](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/GGE) $33.72 56,180 BUX $649 1,081,234 BUX 19.25x 2026-11-07 21:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e78) [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) [maxz9590](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/maxz9590) $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 21:39 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 16:48 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 16:48 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 16:48 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-09 16:48 UTC [Lots Of Gems Of Citrine (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-gems-of-citrine-quartz) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $73.71 122,805 BUX 2.19x 2026-11-08 00:03 UTC [Small Logs Of Oak (Wood) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-logs-of-oak-wood) Hidden $33.72 56,180 BUX $4.38 7,300 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-08 00:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $33.72 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 0.1% Exceedingly Rare 0.4% Covert 4.5% Classified 6.0% Mil Spec Grade 14.0% Consumer Grade 75.0% best hit $649 (19.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt