--- title: "The Classic case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Classic ($81.62) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 83.78% over 42 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c rendered: 2026-11-12T08:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [The Classic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · The Classic A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c?window=all) Price · $81.62 · 135,974 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $73.46 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.78% · 42 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 38 openings · below min 30 days · 42 openings · below min since tracking started · 42 openings · below min 53.0% 85.8% 118.5% **Small sample.** 42 openings and 11.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c?window=7d) | 38 | 86.12% ±31.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c) | 42 | 83.78% ±30.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c?window=all) | 42 | 83.78% ±30.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Gauntlet of Galaxies (Garnet) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/gauntlet-of-galaxies-garnet) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,250 2,082,500 BUX | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Precious Stone of Ruby (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-ruby-gemstone) | 1 in 500 | $1,132 1,885,250 BUX | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Ruby-Infused Wine Goblet other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ruby-infused-wine-goblet) | 1 in 37 | $350 583,100 BUX | 12.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [Oracle Orb (Obsidian) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oracle-orb-obsidian) | 1 in 25 | $165 274,890 BUX | 9.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [Rock Of Jasper (Silica Mineral) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/rock-of-jasper-silica-mineral) | 1 in 17 | $110 183,040 BUX | 9.0% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× | | [Radiance Ring (Ruby) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/radiance-ring-ruby) | 1 in 14 | $90.00 149,940 BUX | 8.6% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.70× | | [A Geologist's Rejected Diamond (Diamond) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/a-geologists-rejected-diamond-diamond) | 1 in 13 | $88.00 146,608 BUX | 9.0% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.27× | | [Wire Sculpture (Copper) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/wire-sculpture-copper) | 10.0% | $69.00 114,954 BUX | 9.4% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× | | [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) | 62.5% | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 37.4% | 25 | 26.3 | 0.95× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7c) [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) Hidden $81.62 135,974 BUX $44.00 73,304 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) Hidden $81.62 135,974 BUX $44.00 73,304 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [Radiance Ring (Ruby) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/radiance-ring-ruby) Hidden $81.62 135,974 BUX $90.00 149,940 BUX 1.10x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [Wire Sculpture (Copper) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/wire-sculpture-copper) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $81.62 135,974 BUX $69.00 114,954 BUX 0.85x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) Hidden $81.62 135,974 BUX $44.00 73,304 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) Hidden $81.62 135,974 BUX $44.00 73,304 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [Wire Sculpture (Copper) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/wire-sculpture-copper) Hidden $81.62 135,974 BUX $69.00 114,954 BUX 0.85x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $81.62 135,974 BUX $44.00 73,304 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-11 00:08 UTC [Rock Of Jasper (Silica Mineral) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/rock-of-jasper-silica-mineral) Hidden $81.62 135,974 BUX $110 183,040 BUX 1.35x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) Hidden $81.62 135,974 BUX $44.00 73,304 BUX 0.54x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $81.62 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 0.1% Covert 12.9% Restricted 74.0% Classified 13.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt