--- title: "Lucky Dune case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Dune ($25.68) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 77.24% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f rendered: 2026-11-12T07:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lucky Dune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lucky Dune A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f?window=all) Price · $25.68 · 42,784 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $23.11 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.24% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 109.3% 219.0% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f?window=7d) | 10 | 62.61% ±155.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f) | 18 | 77.24% ±116.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f?window=all) | 18 | 77.24% ±116.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) | 1 in 100 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 28.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Throne (Topaz) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/throne-topaz) | 1 in 25 | $50.00 83,300 BUX | 8.7% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [Grail (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/grail-garnet) | 1 in 20 | $44.00 73,304 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Totem (Topaz) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/totem-topaz) | 15.0% | $32.00 53,312 BUX | 20.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [Gauntlet (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/gauntlet-garnet) | 20.0% | $24.00 39,984 BUX | 20.8% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× | | [Slab Of Granite (Rock) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/slab-of-granite-rock) | 55.0% | $5.13 8,550 BUX | 12.2% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.81× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e7f) [Slab Of Granite (Rock) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/slab-of-granite-rock) Hidden $25.68 42,784 BUX $5.13 8,550 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 19:11 UTC [Totem (Topaz) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/totem-topaz) Hidden $25.68 42,784 BUX $32.00 53,312 BUX 1.25x 2026-11-10 19:11 UTC [Slab Of Granite (Rock) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/slab-of-granite-rock) Hidden $25.68 42,784 BUX $5.13 8,550 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-10 19:11 UTC [Gauntlet (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/gauntlet-garnet) [makarass](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/makarass) $25.68 42,784 BUX $24.00 39,984 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-10 19:11 UTC [Throne (Topaz) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/throne-topaz) Hidden $25.68 42,784 BUX $50.00 83,300 BUX 1.95x 2026-11-10 08:17 UTC [Gauntlet (Garnet) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/gauntlet-garnet) [mousev21](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mousev21) $25.68 42,784 BUX $24.00 39,984 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-10 08:17 UTC [Slab Of Granite (Rock) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/slab-of-granite-rock) Hidden $25.68 42,784 BUX $5.13 8,550 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Slab Of Granite (Rock) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/slab-of-granite-rock) Hidden $25.68 42,784 BUX $5.13 8,550 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Slab Of Granite (Rock) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/slab-of-granite-rock) Hidden $25.68 42,784 BUX $5.13 8,550 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC [Slab Of Granite (Rock) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/slab-of-granite-rock) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $25.68 42,784 BUX $5.13 8,550 BUX 0.20x 2026-11-08 23:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $25.68 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 1.0% Restricted 29.0% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% Consumer Grade 55.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt