--- title: "Lucky Loot case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Loot ($290.67) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 57.70% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Lucky Loot](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Lucky Loot A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81?window=all) Price · $290.67 · 484,260 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $261.60 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 57.70% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 125.5% 251.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81?window=24h) | 4 | 57.70% ±193.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81?window=7d) | 4 | 57.70% ±193.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81) | 4 | 57.70% ±193.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81?window=all) | 4 | 57.70% ±193.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Amulet of Atlantis (Amethyst) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-of-atlantis-amethyst) | 1 in 50 | $3,884 6,470,694 BUX | 29.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Prism (Adamantium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-adamantium) | 1 in 14 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 19.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) | 1 in 13 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 19.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Palladium Palace other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palladium-palace) | 10.0% | $445 741,370 BUX | 17.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Palace Pendant (Peridot) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pendant-peridot) | 12.5% | $200 333,200 BUX | 9.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Throne (Topaz) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/throne-topaz) | 16.5% | $50.00 83,300 BUX | 3.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Lots Of Coins Of Gold (Metal) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-gold-metal) | 19.0% | $16.83 28,039 BUX | 1.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Artifact (Aluminum) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/artifact-aluminum) | 25.0% | $2.55 4,248 BUX | 0.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) Hidden $291 484,260 BUX $649 1,081,234 BUX 2.23x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e81) [Lots Of Coins Of Gold (Metal) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-coins-of-gold-metal) Hidden $291 484,260 BUX $16.83 28,039 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Artifact (Aluminum) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/artifact-aluminum) Hidden $291 484,260 BUX $2.55 4,248 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) Hidden $291 484,260 BUX $649 1,081,234 BUX 2.23x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Artifact (Aluminum) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/artifact-aluminum) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $291 484,260 BUX $2.55 4,248 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $291 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 2.0% Covert 37.5% Restricted 16.5% Classified 19.0% Industrial Grade 25.0% best hit $649 (2.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt