--- title: "Winter Whisper case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Winter Whisper ($1.00) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 7 items with odds, observed 83.34% over 1,278 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Winter Whisper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Winter Whisper A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82?window=all) Price · $1.00 · 1,659 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $0.90 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.34% · 1,278 openings, odds method Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82 openings · below min 7 days · 83.41% ±17.02 874 openings 30 days · 83.34% ±14.07 1,278 openings since tracking started · 83.34% ±14.07 1,278 openings 8.5% 64.8% 121.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82?window=24h) | 82 | 64.93% ±55.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82?window=7d) | 874 | 83.41% ±17.0 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82) | 1,278 | 83.34% ±14.1 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82?window=all) | 1,278 | 83.34% ±14.1 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,278 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $62.72 104,491 BUX | 3.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $43.75 72,887 BUX | 9.8% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× | | [Sticker \| aumaN (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-auman-foil-katowice-2019) | 1 in 33 | $5.92 9,862 BUX | 19.8% | 44 | 38.3 | 1.15× | | [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.31 2,182 BUX | 11.7% | 95 | 102.2 | 0.93× | | [Sticker \| Freeze (Lenticular) sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-freeze-lenticular) | 10.0% | $1.12 1,865 BUX | 12.5% | 125 | 127.8 | 0.98× | | [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 12.1% | 128 | 127.8 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 68.8% | $0.40 666 BUX | 30.7% | 885 | 878.6 | 1.01× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e82) [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,659 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-12 07:50 UTC [AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 1,659 BUX $1.31 2,182 BUX 1.32x 2026-11-12 07:50 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,659 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-12 07:50 UTC [AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [user-1e2e3e](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-1e2e3e) $1.00 1,659 BUX $1.31 2,182 BUX 1.32x 2026-11-12 07:50 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,659 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 1.08x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,659 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,659 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) [user-dedb78](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-dedb78) $1.00 1,659 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 1.08x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 1,659 BUX $0.40 666 BUX 0.40x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC [Sticker | Freeze (Lenticular) sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-freeze-lenticular) Hidden $1.00 1,659 BUX $1.12 1,865 BUX 1.12x 2026-11-11 23:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1.00 | 89.98% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed industrial 0.1% Classified 0.2% Remarkable 3.0% restricted 18.0% Extraordinary 10.0% mil spec 68.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt