--- title: "Hellfire Heirloom case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hellfire Heirloom ($0.82) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.05% from 9 items with odds, observed 93.36% over 4,437 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Hellfire Heirloom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Hellfire Heirloom A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83?window=all) Price · $0.82 · 1,372 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.05% · EV $0.74 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.36% · 4,437 openings, odds method Variance · 13.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 71.83% ±68.54 108 openings 7 days · 92.69% ±12.72 3,134 openings 30 days · 93.36% ±10.69 4,437 openings since tracking started · 93.36% ±10.69 4,437 openings 2.5% 71.7% 141.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83?window=24h) | 108 | 71.83% ±68.5 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83?window=7d) | 3,134 | 92.69% ±12.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83) | 4,437 | 93.36% ±10.7 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83?window=all) | 4,437 | 93.36% ±10.7 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,441 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $70.66 117,719 BUX | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 526 | $58.12 96,827 BUX | 14.9% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.30× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $13.68 22,790 BUX | 11.1% | 24 | 26.6 | 0.90× | | [MAC-10 \| Curse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $7.96 13,261 BUX | 10.7% | 39 | 44.4 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $4.55 7,580 BUX | 9.2% | 84 | 66.6 | 1.26× | | [Sticker \| Battle Scarred sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $3.19 5,314 BUX | 15.1% | 162 | 155.4 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.08 3,465 BUX | 5.6% | 87 | 88.8 | 0.98× | | [P250 \| Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.53 882 BUX | 14.3% | 852 | 888.2 | 0.96× | | [UMP-45 \| Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) | 71.2% | $0.19 316 BUX | 18.2% | 3,182 | 3162.0 | 1.01× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) [Magnum357](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Magnum357) $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-10 19:12 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-10 19:10 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) [Magnum357](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Magnum357) $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-10 18:48 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-09 09:26 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) [Ronnie Dog Dog](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ronnie%20Dog%20Dog) $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-09 09:04 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-07 23:45 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-07 23:01 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) [Exside](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Exside) $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-06 09:12 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-04 10:40 UTC [Sticker | HellRaisers (Holo) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-atlanta-2017) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $58.12 96,827 BUX 70.57x 2026-11-02 22:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e83) [P250 | Inferno (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-field-tested) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.53 882 BUX 0.64x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [user-19d0a7](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-19d0a7) $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [user-19d0a7](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-19d0a7) $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:57 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:57 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:04 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:04 UTC [MAC-10 | Curse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.82 1,372 BUX $7.96 13,261 BUX 9.67x 2026-11-12 00:04 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [user-35ac52](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-35ac52) $0.82 1,372 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-12 00:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $0.82 | 90.05% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 0.6% Remarkable 0.2% Restricted 21.0% Industrial Grade 1.5% violet 3.5% Rare 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 71.2% best hit $58.12 (70.57x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.05 on average: an expected loss of $9.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt