--- title: "Concrete Jungle case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Concrete Jungle ($0.39) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.08% from 8 items with odds, observed 74.35% over 1,527 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Concrete Jungle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Concrete Jungle A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85?window=all) Price · $0.39 · 653 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.08% · EV $0.35 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.35% · 1,527 openings, odds method Variance · 16.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70.96% ±74.56 116 openings 7 days · 74.05% ±25.00 1,032 openings 30 days · 74.35% ±20.55 1,527 openings since tracking started · 74.35% ±20.55 1,527 openings -0.5% 72.8% 146.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85?window=24h) | 116 | 70.96% ±74.6 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85?window=7d) | 1,032 | 74.05% ±25.0 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85) | 1,527 | 74.35% ±20.5 | −1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85?window=all) | 1,527 | 74.35% ±20.5 | −1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,527 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $122 202,502 BUX | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 526 | $13.58 22,624 BUX | 7.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $11.97 19,942 BUX | 8.5% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | | [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-well-worn) | 1 in 182 | $8.52 14,194 BUX | 13.3% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.71× | | [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $2.23 3,715 BUX | 6.3% | 12 | 15.3 | 0.79× | | [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.06 1,765 BUX | 6.0% | 27 | 30.5 | 0.88× | | [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.70 1,166 BUX | 5.0% | 37 | 38.2 | 0.97× | | [UMP-45 \| Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) | 93.5% | $0.19 316 BUX | 50.2% | 1,442 | 1427.7 | 1.01× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e85) [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) Hidden $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [user-19d0a7](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-19d0a7) $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [user-19d0a7](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-19d0a7) $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-12 00:57 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-12 00:57 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) Hidden $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) Hidden $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) Hidden $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [UMP-45 | Riot (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-well-worn) [user-dedb78](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-dedb78) $0.39 653 BUX $0.19 316 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $0.39 | 90.08% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% industrial 0.2% Industrial Grade 0.8% Consumer Grade 1.0% #8847ff 2.0% #4b69ff 2.5% Mil Spec Grade 93.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.08 on average: an expected loss of $9.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt