--- title: "Glacial Gear case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Glacial Gear ($1.58) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 82.80% over 639 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Glacial Gear](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Glacial Gear A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86?window=all) Price · $1.58 · 2,628 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1.42 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.80% · 639 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 82.81% ±19.64 384 openings 30 days · 82.80% ±15.22 639 openings since tracking started · 82.80% ±15.22 639 openings -0.5% 77.5% 155.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86?window=24h) | 16 | 58.62% ±96.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86?window=7d) | 384 | 82.81% ±19.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86) | 639 | 82.80% ±15.2 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86?window=all) | 639 | 82.80% ±15.2 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 639 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $62.72 104,491 BUX | 8.8% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [eSports 2013 Winter Case container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/esports-2013-winter-case) | 1 in 40 | $6.51 10,845 BUX | 11.5% | 15 | 16.0 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| COLDYY1 (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldyy1-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 33 | $5.20 8,663 BUX | 11.0% | 19 | 19.2 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cold-fusion-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $4.94 8,230 BUX | 11.1% | 18 | 20.4 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $3.55 5,914 BUX | 12.0% | 39 | 30.7 | 1.27× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) | 86.3% | $0.75 1,249 BUX | 45.6% | 548 | 551.5 | 0.99× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e86) [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) [user-81c4ab](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-81c4ab) $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) [2ez4me](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/2ez4me) $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 21:00 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-varicamo-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.58 2,628 BUX $0.75 1,249 BUX 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2,628 BUX $3.55 5,914 BUX 2.25x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $1.58 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed industrial 0.2% Base Grade 2.5% Remarkable 3.0% Industrial Grade 3.2% Restricted 4.8% Mil Spec Grade 86.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt