--- title: "Stellar Strike case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stellar Strike ($1.58) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 78.61% over 1,240 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Stellar Strike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Stellar Strike A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87?window=all) Price · $1.58 · 2,630 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1.42 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.61% · 1,240 openings, odds method Variance · 9.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 25 openings · below min 7 days · 80.97% ±19.86 913 openings 30 days · 78.61% ±17.04 1,240 openings since tracking started · 78.61% ±17.04 1,240 openings 60.5% 229.5% 398.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87?window=24h) | 25 | 277.77% ±120.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87?window=7d) | 913 | 80.97% ±19.9 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87) | 1,240 | 78.61% ±17.0 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87?window=all) | 1,240 | 78.61% ±17.0 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,240 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Astralis (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 400 | $88.82 147,974 BUX | 15.6% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× | | [Sticker \| Space Soldiers (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 100 | $18.38 30,621 BUX | 12.9% | 12 | 12.4 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $5.52 9,196 BUX | 13.6% | 35 | 43.4 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $4.07 6,780 BUX | 11.5% | 53 | 49.6 | 1.07× | | [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 42.8% | $1.02 1,699 BUX | 30.7% | 530 | 530.1 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) | 48.5% | $0.46 766 BUX | 15.7% | 609 | 601.4 | 1.01× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Astralis (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $88.82 147,974 BUX 56.26x 2026-11-12 02:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e87) [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-12 02:02 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-12 02:02 UTC [Sticker | Astralis (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $88.82 147,974 BUX 56.26x 2026-11-12 02:02 UTC [PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) [The broke man with a plan to ban](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/The%20broke%20man%20with%20a%20plan%20to%20ban) $1.58 2,630 BUX $1.02 1,699 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-12 02:02 UTC [PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $1.02 1,699 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $1.02 1,699 BUX 0.65x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) [user-81c4ab](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-81c4ab) $1.58 2,630 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 17:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 2,630 BUX $0.46 766 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-11 17:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $1.58 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exotic 1.3% restricted 3.5% classified 4.0% #8847ff 42.8% milspec 48.5% best hit $88.82 (56.26x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt