--- title: "Industrial Revolution case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Industrial Revolution ($0.22) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.93% from 9 items with odds, observed 76.76% over 1,524 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Industrial Revolution](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Industrial Revolution A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88?window=all) Price · $0.22 · 369 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.93% · EV $0.20 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.76% · 1,524 openings, odds method Variance · 28.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 100.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 73.45% ±80.43 171 openings 7 days · 73.22% ±32.60 1,041 openings 30 days · 76.76% ±26.94 1,524 openings since tracking started · 76.76% ±26.94 1,524 openings -0.5% 77.0% 154.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88?window=24h) | 171 | 73.45% ±80.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88?window=7d) | 1,041 | 73.22% ±32.6 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88) | 1,524 | 76.76% ±26.9 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88?window=all) | 1,524 | 76.76% ±26.9 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,580 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sawed-off-full-stop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $82.54 137,511 BUX | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $65.05 108,373 BUX | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MP7 \| Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $34.31 57,160 BUX | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $6.33 10,545 BUX | 3.2% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $4.83 8,046 BUX | 3.9% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $1.15 1,915 BUX | 1.2% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $0.77 1,282 BUX | 3.9% | 17 | 15.8 | 1.08× | | [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $0.57 949 BUX | 4.3% | 24 | 23.7 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir MP7 \| Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) | 97.0% | $0.15 249 BUX | 72.8% | 1,534 | 1532.6 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e88) [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-12 00:59 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) [user-19d0a7](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-19d0a7) $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC [Dual Berettas | Oil Change (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-factory-new) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.22 369 BUX $0.57 949 BUX 2.57x 2026-11-12 00:58 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) [user-19d0a7](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-19d0a7) $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-12 00:57 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) [sad\_man17](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/sad_man17) $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-12 00:57 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Motherboard (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-motherboard-battle-scarred) [user-dedb78](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-dedb78) $0.22 369 BUX $0.15 249 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $0.22 | 89.93% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 1.2% covert 0.0% milspec 0.0% Legendary 0.1% classified 0.2% Consumer Grade 1.5% Industrial Grade 97.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.93 on average: an expected loss of $10.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt