--- title: "Sapphire Surge case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sapphire Surge ($101.50) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 46.03% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a rendered: 2026-11-12T04:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Sapphire Surge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Sapphire Surge A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a?window=all) Price · $101.50 · 169,096 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $91.35 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 46.03% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 110.3% 221.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a) | 4 | 46.03% ±174.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a?window=all) | 4 | 46.03% ±174.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $2,154 3,588,763 BUX | 10.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $901 1,501,549 BUX | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $730 1,216,246 BUX | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $301 501,432 BUX | 13.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $119 198,187 BUX | 11.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 12.0% | $74.30 123,783 BUX | 9.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| Counter Logic Gaming (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-counter-logic-gaming-foil-cologne-2016) | 72.5% | $46.72 77,835 BUX | 37.1% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 11 Nov, 22:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e8a) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $101 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 0.4% Covert 2.0% extraordinary 4.0% mil spec 9.0% classified 12.0% Exotic 72.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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