---
title: "Polar Glow case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Polar Glow ($1,136.84) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Polar Glow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Polar Glow

A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97?window=all)

Price · $1,136.84 · 1,893,978 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,023.16 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $9,468 15,774,487 BUX | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3,253 5,419,897 BUX | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2,047 3,409,985 BUX | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1,740 2,899,489 BUX | 13.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1,679 2,796,962 BUX | 16.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1,334 2,223,177 BUX | 19.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 58.0% | $381 635,529 BUX | 21.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e97)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $1,137 | 90.00% | 7 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 14.0% extraordinary 5.0% covert 81.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt