---
title: "Christmas Chronicles case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Christmas Chronicles ($40,085.93) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f
rendered: 2026-11-12T08:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Christmas Chronicles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Christmas Chronicles

A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f?window=all)

Price · $40,085.93 · 66,783,158 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $36,077.34 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 48.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 52.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Emerald Enigma other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/emerald-enigma) | 1 in 40 | $125K 208,250,000 BUX | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Suspect's Gold Watch (Gold) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/suspects-gold-watch-gold) | 1 in 13 | $50K 83,300,000 BUX | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Bars Of Mithril (Metal) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/bars-of-mithril-metal) | 1 in 11 | $48K 79,926,350 BUX | 12.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Precious Stones of Diamond (Gemstone) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stones-of-diamond-gemstone) | 13.0% | $45K 75,000,000 BUX | 16.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Meteorite Rocks (Debris) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/meteorite-rocks-debris) | 16.0% | $40.5K 67,392,000 BUX | 17.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Precious Stone of Diamond (Gemstone) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stone-of-diamond-gemstone) | 24.0% | $29.8K 49,650,000 BUX | 19.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Lots Of Precious Stones Of Emerald (Gemstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-precious-stones-of-emerald-gemstone) | 28.0% | $19.3K 32,175,000 BUX | 15.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9e9f)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $40.1K | 90.00% | 7 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Special 72.0% Covert 28.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt