--- title: "Thunderstrike Arsenal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Thunderstrike Arsenal ($353.56) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 55.10% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Thunderstrike Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Thunderstrike Arsenal A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1?window=all) Price · $353.56 · 589,034 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $318.21 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 55.10% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 69.3% 139.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1) | 4 | 55.10% ±83.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1?window=all) | 4 | 55.10% ±83.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1,006 1,676,662 BUX | 28.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $790 1,316,373 BUX | 27.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Souvenir AUG \| Storm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-storm-factory-new) | 16.0% | $312 519,925 BUX | 15.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-field-tested) | 17.0% | $242 402,672 BUX | 12.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 18.5% | $146 242,619 BUX | 8.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 28.5% | $79.83 132,996 BUX | 7.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea1) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $354 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 9.0% covert 29.5% Consumer Grade 16.0% restricted 17.0% classified 28.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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