---
title: "Demonic Arsenal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Demonic Arsenal ($526.31) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2
rendered: 2026-11-12T05:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Demonic Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Demonic Arsenal

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2?window=all)

Price · $526.31 · 876,827 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $473.68 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 60.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1,189 1,980,374 BUX | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $997 1,661,668 BUX | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $832 1,386,528 BUX | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $832 1,386,345 BUX | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 19.5% | $514 856,057 BUX | 21.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 30.0% | $421 701,435 BUX | 26.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $378 629,481 BUX | 31.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea2)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $526 | 90.00% | 7 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 24.5% covert 72.0% covert knife 3.5%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt