--- title: "Mystical Mists case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystical Mists ($541.48) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 47.76% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Mystical Mists](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Mystical Mists A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3?window=all) Price · $541.48 · 902,109 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $487.33 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.76% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 8.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 170.3% 341.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3?window=24h) | 4 | 47.76% ±292.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3?window=7d) | 4 | 47.76% ±292.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3) | 4 | 47.76% ±292.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3?window=all) | 4 | 47.76% ±292.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Totem (Tourmaline) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/totem-tourmaline) | 1 in 40 | $10K 16,660,000 BUX | 51.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Lots Of Portions Of Meteorite (Debris) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-portions-of-meteorite-debris) | 1 in 22 | $2,498 4,162,080 BUX | 23.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-mythril-shield-mythril) | 1 in 20 | $999 1,664,334 BUX | 10.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) | 10.0% | $411 684,000 BUX | 8.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Cube (Tungsten) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cube-tungsten) | 13.0% | $199 331,534 BUX | 5.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Copper Kettle other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-kettle) | 19.0% | $18.98 31,621 BUX | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Dust Vial (Diamond) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dust-vial-diamond) | 20.0% | $15.00 24,990 BUX | 0.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Obelisk (Onyx) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-onyx) | 26.0% | $5.50 9,163 BUX | 0.3% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.96× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-mythril-shield-mythril) Hidden $541 902,109 BUX $999 1,664,334 BUX 1.84x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea3) [Dust Vial (Diamond) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dust-vial-diamond) Hidden $541 902,109 BUX $15.00 24,990 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [Dust Vial (Diamond) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dust-vial-diamond) Hidden $541 902,109 BUX $15.00 24,990 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [Miniature Mythril Shield (Mythril) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-mythril-shield-mythril) Hidden $541 902,109 BUX $999 1,664,334 BUX 1.84x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC [Obelisk (Onyx) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-onyx) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $541 902,109 BUX $5.50 9,163 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $541 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 34.5% Special 4.5% Classified 15.0% Industrial Grade 46.0% best hit $999 (1.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt