--- title: "Santa's Sleuth case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Santa's Sleuth ($505.47) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 49.26% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Santa's Sleuth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Santa's Sleuth A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4?window=all) Price · $505.47 · 842,108 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $454.92 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 49.26% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 39.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 146.0% 292.5% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4?window=24h) | 4 | 49.95% ±242.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4?window=7d) | 12 | 49.26% ±139.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4) | 12 | 49.26% ±139.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4?window=all) | 12 | 49.26% ±139.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tiara (Tourmaline) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiara-tourmaline) | 1 in 400 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 13.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Magic Wand (Uranium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-wand-uranium) | 1 in 133 | $1,600 2,665,600 BUX | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Musical Flute (Mythril) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/musical-flute-mythril) | 19.0% | $599 997,934 BUX | 25.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) | 19.0% | $599 997,934 BUX | 25.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) | 30.0% | $375 624,750 BUX | 24.7% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) | 31.0% | $130 216,580 BUX | 8.9% | 8 | 3.7 | 2.15× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Musical Flute (Mythril) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/musical-flute-mythril) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $599 997,934 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $599 997,934 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea4) [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $375 624,750 BUX 0.74x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $505 842,108 BUX $375 624,750 BUX 0.74x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Coffee Mug (Sapphire) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/coffee-mug-sapphire) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $130 216,580 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-06 08:38 UTC [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $599 997,934 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC [Musical Flute (Mythril) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/musical-flute-mythril) Hidden $505 842,108 BUX $599 997,934 BUX 1.19x 2026-11-06 08:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $505 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 1.0% Restricted 19.0% Classified 19.0% Mil Spec Grade 30.0% Industrial Grade 31.0% best hit $599 (1.19x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt