--- title: "Nautical Nebula Set case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nautical Nebula Set ($17.38) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 77.25% over 152 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Nautical Nebula Set](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Nautical Nebula Set A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5?window=all) Price · $17.38 · 28,950 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $15.64 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.25% · 152 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 82.40% ±39.87 140 openings 30 days · 77.25% ±38.27 152 openings since tracking started · 77.25% ±38.27 152 openings 38.5% 80.8% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5?window=7d) | 140 | 82.40% ±39.9 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5) | 152 | 77.25% ±38.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5?window=all) | 152 | 77.25% ±38.3 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $349 581,250 BUX | 22.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $124 205,917 BUX | 15.8% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $119 198,620 BUX | 15.2% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $38.60 64,307 BUX | 7.4% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $36.62 61,008 BUX | 23.4% | 18 | 15.2 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.74 7,896 BUX | 4.5% | 31 | 22.8 | 1.36× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-water-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.27 7,113 BUX | 1.4% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× | | [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $2.79 4,648 BUX | 3.9% | 23 | 33.4 | 0.69× | | [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 40.0% | $2.34 3,898 BUX | 6.0% | 67 | 60.8 | 1.10× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea5) [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.38 28,950 BUX $36.62 61,008 BUX 2.11x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $17.38 28,950 BUX $4.74 7,896 BUX 0.27x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $17.38 28,950 BUX $2.34 3,898 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $17.38 28,950 BUX $2.34 3,898 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 01:36 UTC [G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $17.38 28,950 BUX $2.34 3,898 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.38 28,950 BUX $36.62 61,008 BUX 2.11x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $17.38 28,950 BUX $2.34 3,898 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [MAG-7 | Seabird (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-minimal-wear) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $17.38 28,950 BUX $2.79 4,648 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 01:35 UTC [G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $17.38 28,950 BUX $2.34 3,898 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC [G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $17.38 28,950 BUX $2.34 3,898 BUX 0.13x 2026-11-10 19:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $17.38 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 11.0% covert knife 4.0% pink 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 20.0% Consumer Grade 22.0% restricted 40.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt