--- title: "Firewall Breach case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Firewall Breach ($4.35) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 80.03% over 436 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Firewall Breach](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Firewall Breach A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6?window=all) Price · $4.35 · 7,246 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $3.91 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.03% · 436 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 78.56% ±30.61 218 openings 30 days · 80.03% ±21.65 436 openings since tracking started · 80.03% ±21.65 436 openings 47.5% 78.8% 110.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6?window=7d) | 218 | 78.56% ±30.6 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6) | 436 | 80.03% ±21.6 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6?window=all) | 436 | 80.03% ±21.6 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 436 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $64.42 107,323 BUX | 32.9% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $27.21 45,331 BUX | 20.9% | 11 | 13.1 | 0.84× | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $13.00 21,658 BUX | 16.6% | 27 | 21.8 | 1.24× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.65 6,080 BUX | 7.5% | 36 | 34.9 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.67 4,448 BUX | 5.5% | 18 | 34.9 | 0.52× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.30 2,165 BUX | 3.3% | 50 | 43.6 | 1.15× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Plume (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-plume-well-worn) | 12.0% | $1.26 2,099 BUX | 3.9% | 53 | 52.3 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 27.0% | $0.77 1,282 BUX | 5.3% | 132 | 117.7 | 1.12× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.66 1,099 BUX | 4.2% | 103 | 109.0 | 0.94× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea6) [P2000 | Space Race (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.35 7,246 BUX $3.65 6,080 BUX 0.84x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.35 7,246 BUX $0.77 1,282 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.35 7,246 BUX $0.77 1,282 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-battle-scarred) [nFGwau](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/nFGwau) $4.35 7,246 BUX $1.30 2,165 BUX 0.30x 2026-11-11 06:50 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Plume (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-plume-well-worn) Hidden $4.35 7,246 BUX $1.26 2,099 BUX 0.29x 2026-11-10 23:08 UTC [P90 | Desert Warfare (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-field-tested) Hidden $4.35 7,246 BUX $2.67 4,448 BUX 0.61x 2026-11-10 23:08 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $4.35 7,246 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-10 23:08 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) [zaibas22](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/zaibas22) $4.35 7,246 BUX $0.77 1,282 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-10 23:08 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $4.35 7,246 BUX $64.42 107,323 BUX 14.81x 2026-11-10 21:42 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $4.35 7,246 BUX $0.66 1,099 BUX 0.15x 2026-11-10 21:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $4.35 | 89.99% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 2.0% classified 28.0% pink 5.0% restricted 18.0% milspec 8.0% Mil Spec Grade 39.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt