--- title: "Cosmic Encounter case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cosmic Encounter ($22.61) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 53.90% over 198 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7 rendered: 2026-11-12T06:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Cosmic Encounter](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Cosmic Encounter A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7?window=all) Price · $22.61 · 37,674 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $20.35 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.90% · 198 openings, odds method Variance · 39.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 51.20% ±93.30 172 openings 30 days · 53.90% ±86.96 198 openings since tracking started · 53.90% ±86.96 198 openings -0.5% 137.5% 275.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7?window=24h) | 40 | 81.44% ±193.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7?window=7d) | 172 | 51.20% ±93.3 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7) | 198 | 53.90% ±87.0 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7?window=all) | 198 | 53.90% ±87.0 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 198 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $2,203 3,670,631 BUX | 43.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $128 213,647 BUX | 32.1% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.19× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 10.0% | $21.47 35,769 BUX | 10.5% | 15 | 19.8 | 0.76× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 12.0% | $18.58 30,954 BUX | 11.0% | 23 | 23.8 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| Space Soldiers \| London 2018 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-london-2018) | 22.5% | $1.38 2,299 BUX | 1.5% | 48 | 44.6 | 1.08× | | [Sticker \| Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) | 23.0% | $0.90 1,499 BUX | 1.0% | 39 | 45.5 | 0.86× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 27.0% | $0.39 649 BUX | 0.5% | 61 | 53.5 | 1.14× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea7) [Sticker | Space Soldiers | London 2018 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-london-2018) Hidden $22.61 37,674 BUX $1.38 2,299 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $22.61 37,674 BUX $128 213,647 BUX 5.67x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [Sticker | Space Soldiers | London 2018 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-london-2018) Hidden $22.61 37,674 BUX $1.38 2,299 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [Sticker | Space Soldiers | London 2018 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-soldiers-london-2018) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $22.61 37,674 BUX $1.38 2,299 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:46 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) Hidden $22.61 37,674 BUX $0.39 649 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) Hidden $22.61 37,674 BUX $0.39 649 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) Hidden $22.61 37,674 BUX $0.39 649 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $22.61 37,674 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) Hidden $22.61 37,674 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) Hidden $22.61 37,674 BUX $18.58 30,954 BUX 0.82x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $22.61 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.4% covert 5.1% restricted 10.0% classified 12.0% High Grade 22.5% Remarkable 23.0% Restricted 27.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt