--- title: "Chain Reaction Repository on 500 Casino: odds & RTP" description: "Chain Reaction Repository ($13.88) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 33.10% over 296 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Chain Reaction Repository](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Chain Reaction Repository A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8?window=all) Price · $13.88 · 23,124 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $12.49 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 33.10% · 296 openings, odds method Variance · 113.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 228 openings · below min 30 days · 296 openings · below min since tracking started · 296 openings · below min -0.5% 304.5% 609.5% **Small sample.** 296 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8?window=24h) | 12 | 6.84% ±601.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8?window=7d) | 228 | 26.26% ±138.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8) | 296 | 33.10% ±121.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8?window=all) | 296 | 33.10% ±121.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 296 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $2,688 4,478,791 BUX | 64.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $111 185,559 BUX | 15.2% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $50.54 84,199 BUX | 8.1% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.35× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $11.35 18,909 BUX | 3.6% | 8 | 11.8 | 0.68× | | [Nuke Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/nuke-pin) | 1 in 17 | $4.54 7,563 BUX | 2.2% | 20 | 17.8 | 1.13× | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $3.43 5,714 BUX | 1.9% | 14 | 20.7 | 0.68× | | [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Well-Worn) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-well-worn) | 10.0% | $1.62 2,698 BUX | 1.3% | 35 | 29.6 | 1.18× | | [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) | 11.0% | $1.53 2,548 BUX | 1.3% | 28 | 32.6 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| Toxic sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic) | 25.0% | $0.47 783 BUX | 0.9% | 78 | 74.0 | 1.05× | | [AUG \| Plague (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-battle-scarred) | 33.0% | $0.33 549 BUX | 0.9% | 100 | 97.7 | 1.02× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ea8) [AUG | Plague (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.88 23,124 BUX $0.33 549 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [AUG | Plague (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.88 23,124 BUX $0.33 549 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Toxic sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic) Hidden $13.88 23,124 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Toxic sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $13.88 23,124 BUX $0.47 783 BUX 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Reactor (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-well-worn) Hidden $13.88 23,124 BUX $3.43 5,714 BUX 0.25x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [AUG | Plague (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-battle-scarred) [mads](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mads) $13.88 23,124 BUX $0.33 549 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [AUG | Plague (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.88 23,124 BUX $0.33 549 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC [Negev | Nuclear Waste (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-field-tested) [mads](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mads) $13.88 23,124 BUX $1.53 2,548 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:30 UTC [SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Well-Worn) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-well-worn) Hidden $13.88 23,124 BUX $1.62 2,698 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC [SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Well-Worn) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-well-worn) [mads](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/mads) $13.88 23,124 BUX $1.62 2,698 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $13.88 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 0.3% Legendary 1.7% classified 2.0% red 4.0% high 6.0% mil spec 7.0% Uncommon 10.0% industrial 11.0% blue 25.0% #4b69ff 33.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt