--- title: "Phantom Haze case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Phantom Haze ($30.33) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 60.43% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa rendered: 2026-11-12T06:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Phantom Haze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Phantom Haze A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa?window=all) Price · $30.33 · 50,531 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $27.30 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 60.43% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 19.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min -0.5% 153.0% 306.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa?window=7d) | 16 | 91.21% ±214.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa) | 32 | 60.43% ±151.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa?window=all) | 32 | 60.43% ±151.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,740 2,899,489 BUX | 25.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $885 1,474,826 BUX | 19.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $199 331,300 BUX | 14.6% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $97.22 161,968 BUX | 14.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $97.20 161,935 BUX | 16.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $10.80 17,992 BUX | 6.3% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.17× | | [Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) | 21.0% | $2.53 4,214 BUX | 1.9% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× | | [Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) | 24.0% | $1.80 2,998 BUX | 1.6% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-well-worn) | 27.5% | $0.34 566 BUX | 0.3% | 12 | 8.8 | 1.36× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eaa) [FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.33 50,531 BUX $10.80 17,992 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-09 17:51 UTC [Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ghost-camo-factory-new) Hidden $30.33 50,531 BUX $1.80 2,998 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-09 17:51 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-well-worn) Hidden $30.33 50,531 BUX $0.34 566 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-09 17:51 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) [Caetanomaster](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Caetanomaster) $30.33 50,531 BUX $2.53 4,214 BUX 0.08x 2026-11-09 17:51 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-well-worn) Hidden $30.33 50,531 BUX $0.34 566 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-08 12:27 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-well-worn) Hidden $30.33 50,531 BUX $0.34 566 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-08 12:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.33 50,531 BUX $199 331,300 BUX 6.56x 2026-11-08 12:27 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-well-worn) [user-6b253c](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-6b253c) $30.33 50,531 BUX $0.34 566 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-08 12:27 UTC [FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.33 50,531 BUX $10.80 17,992 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-07 07:12 UTC [FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.33 50,531 BUX $10.80 17,992 BUX 0.36x 2026-11-07 07:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $30.33 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.4% epic 0.6% covert knife 10.5% mil spec 40.0% exotic 21.0% Mil Spec Grade 27.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt