--- title: "Cosmic Intruders case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cosmic Intruders ($6.29) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 116.91% over 240 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac rendered: 2026-11-12T08:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Cosmic Intruders](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Cosmic Intruders A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac?window=all) Price · $6.29 · 10,481 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $5.66 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 116.91% · 240 openings, odds method Variance · 10.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 179 openings · below min 30 days · 240 openings · below min since tracking started · 240 openings · below min 56.5% 107.8% 159.0% **Small sample.** 240 openings and 4.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac?window=7d) | 179 | 105.00% ±47.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac) | 240 | 116.91% ±41.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac?window=all) | 240 | 116.91% ±41.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 240 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $165 274,756 BUX | 29.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $123 204,951 BUX | 21.7% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.67× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $19.18 31,953 BUX | 11.9% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.43× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-copper-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $18.29 30,471 BUX | 11.3% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $4.23 7,047 BUX | 5.2% | 24 | 16.8 | 1.43× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Ghost Camo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ghost-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $3.80 6,330 BUX | 5.4% | 21 | 19.2 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.98 4,964 BUX | 4.7% | 25 | 21.6 | 1.16× | | [Sticker \| Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) | 67.0% | $0.90 1,499 BUX | 10.6% | 142 | 160.8 | 0.88× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eac) [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) Hidden $6.29 10,481 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-factory-new) Hidden $6.29 10,481 BUX $2.98 4,964 BUX 0.47x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) Hidden $6.29 10,481 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $6.29 10,481 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) Hidden $6.29 10,481 BUX $4.23 7,047 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) Hidden $6.29 10,481 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) Hidden $6.29 10,481 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $6.29 10,481 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) Hidden $6.29 10,481 BUX $4.23 7,047 BUX 0.67x 2026-11-11 00:36 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) Hidden $6.29 10,481 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-11 00:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $6.29 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 4.5% covert 1.0% #eb4b4b 3.5% pink 7.0% Mil Spec Grade 8.0% Restricted 9.0% Remarkable 67.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt