--- title: "Tropical Paradise case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Tropical Paradise ($13.22) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 55.49% over 92 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead rendered: 2026-11-12T07:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Tropical Paradise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Tropical Paradise A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead?window=all) Price · $13.22 · 22,019 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.89 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 55.49% · 92 openings, odds method Variance · 18.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 92 openings · below min since tracking started · 92 openings · below min -0.5% 124.3% 249.0% **Small sample.** 92 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead?window=24h) | 16 | 39.02% ±209.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead?window=7d) | 72 | 47.80% ±98.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead) | 92 | 55.49% ±87.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead?window=all) | 92 | 55.49% ±87.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,627 2,710,415 BUX | 13.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $116 194,022 BUX | 24.5% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $113 187,624 BUX | 23.7% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) | 15.0% | $6.91 11,512 BUX | 8.7% | 20 | 13.8 | 1.45× | | [Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) | 22.5% | $4.67 7,780 BUX | 8.8% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× | | [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-well-worn) | 22.5% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 8.5% | 13 | 20.7 | 0.63× | | [Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-skill-surf-holo) | 34.9% | $4.13 6,880 BUX | 12.1% | 39 | 32.1 | 1.21× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ead) [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) Hidden $13.22 22,019 BUX $4.67 7,780 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) Hidden $13.22 22,019 BUX $6.91 11,512 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-skill-surf-holo) Hidden $13.22 22,019 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-skill-surf-holo) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $13.22 22,019 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-skill-surf-holo) Hidden $13.22 22,019 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Skill Surf (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-skill-surf-holo) Hidden $13.22 22,019 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.31x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-well-worn) Hidden $13.22 22,019 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 0.34x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $13.22 22,019 BUX $4.67 7,780 BUX 0.35x 2026-11-11 21:13 UTC [SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) Hidden $13.22 22,019 BUX $6.91 11,512 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [SSG 08 | Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) Hidden $13.22 22,019 BUX $6.91 11,512 BUX 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $13.22 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 2.6% covert 2.5% industrial 37.5% remarkable 57.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt