--- title: "Stormy Night case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stormy Night ($6.78) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 137.61% over 231 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae rendered: 2026-11-12T05:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Stormy Night](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Stormy Night A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae?window=all) Price · $6.78 · 11,297 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.10 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 137.61% · 231 openings, odds method Variance · 19.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 119.27% ±77.86 125 openings 30 days · 137.61% ±57.28 231 openings since tracking started · 137.61% ±57.28 231 openings -0.5% 134.0% 268.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae?window=24h) | 16 | 50.14% ±217.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae?window=7d) | 125 | 119.27% ±77.9 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae) | 231 | 137.61% ±57.3 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae?window=all) | 231 | 137.61% ±57.3 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 231 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $516 858,839 BUX | 16.9% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $242 403,471 BUX | 19.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $111 184,742 BUX | 12.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $17.86 29,754 BUX | 23.4% | 19 | 18.5 | 1.03× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) | 15.3% | $6.95 11,578 BUX | 17.4% | 41 | 35.3 | 1.16× | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $1.58 2,632 BUX | 5.2% | 59 | 46.2 | 1.28× | | [MP9 \| Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-battle-scarred) | 55.3% | $0.50 833 BUX | 4.5% | 108 | 127.7 | 0.85× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $516 858,839 BUX 76.02x 2026-11-08 01:49 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $516 858,839 BUX 76.02x 2026-11-03 23:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eae) [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $1.58 2,632 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $6.95 11,578 BUX 1.02x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [MP9 | Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.78 11,297 BUX $1.58 2,632 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $17.86 29,754 BUX 2.63x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [MP9 | Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $1.58 2,632 BUX 0.23x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $6.78 11,297 BUX $6.95 11,578 BUX 1.02x 2026-11-11 21:09 UTC [MP9 | Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-storm-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $0.50 833 BUX 0.07x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) Hidden $6.78 11,297 BUX $6.95 11,578 BUX 1.02x 2026-11-11 21:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $6.78 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% restricted 0.5% covert knife 0.7% industrial 43.3% Consumer Grade 55.3% best hit $516 (76.02x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt