--- title: "Space Exploring case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Space Exploring ($3.44) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.82% over 1,145 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Space Exploring](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Space Exploring A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0?window=all) Price · $3.44 · 5,726 BUX Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $3.09 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.82% · 1,145 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 26 openings · below min 7 days · 84.10% ±20.93 614 openings 30 days · 96.82% ±15.33 1,145 openings since tracking started · 96.82% ±15.33 1,145 openings -0.5% 79.3% 159.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0?window=24h) | 26 | 56.53% ±101.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0?window=7d) | 614 | 84.10% ±20.9 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0) | 1,145 | 96.82% ±15.3 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0?window=all) | 1,145 | 96.82% ±15.3 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,145 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $124 207,200 BUX | 20.1% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.40× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $18.58 30,954 BUX | 12.0% | 23 | 22.9 | 1.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $6.20 10,329 BUX | 10.0% | 61 | 57.3 | 1.07× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 12.0% | $5.15 8,579 BUX | 20.0% | 133 | 137.4 | 0.97× | | [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.18 5,297 BUX | 15.4% | 172 | 171.8 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Space Race (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $2.88 4,798 BUX | 14.0% | 170 | 171.8 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) | 15.0% | $0.90 1,499 BUX | 4.4% | 149 | 171.8 | 0.87× | | [Sticker \| Blood Moon Wave Rider sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blood-moon-wave-rider) | 35.5% | $0.36 599 BUX | 4.1% | 429 | 406.5 | 1.06× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb0) [Sticker | Blood Moon Wave Rider sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blood-moon-wave-rider) Hidden $3.44 5,726 BUX $0.36 599 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) [Lidthyggepågeden](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Lidthyggep%C3%A5geden) $3.44 5,726 BUX $5.15 8,579 BUX 1.50x 2026-11-11 22:11 UTC [Sticker | Blood Moon Wave Rider sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blood-moon-wave-rider) Hidden $3.44 5,726 BUX $0.36 599 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [Sticker | Blood Moon Wave Rider sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blood-moon-wave-rider) Hidden $3.44 5,726 BUX $0.36 599 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [P2000 | Space Race (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-space-race-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.44 5,726 BUX $2.88 4,798 BUX 0.84x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) [user-81c4ab](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/user-81c4ab) $3.44 5,726 BUX $3.18 5,297 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [MAG-7 | Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) Hidden $3.44 5,726 BUX $3.18 5,297 BUX 0.93x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-well-worn) Hidden $3.44 5,726 BUX $6.20 10,329 BUX 1.80x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [Sticker | Space Marine (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-space-marine-holo) Hidden $3.44 5,726 BUX $0.90 1,499 BUX 0.26x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [Sticker | Blood Moon Wave Rider sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blood-moon-wave-rider) Hidden $3.44 5,726 BUX $0.36 599 BUX 0.10x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $3.44 | 89.99% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 12.5% classified 2.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 15.0% Restricted 15.0% Remarkable 15.0% High Grade 35.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt