--- title: "Notes of the Mortal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Notes of the Mortal ($9.69) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 78.54% over 159 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Notes of the Mortal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Notes of the Mortal A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2?window=all) Price · $9.69 · 16,141 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $8.72 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.54% · 159 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 76.56% ±31.82 111 openings 30 days · 78.54% ±26.59 159 openings since tracking started · 78.54% ±26.59 159 openings 26.5% 95.5% 164.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2?window=24h) | 24 | 95.55% ±68.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2?window=7d) | 111 | 76.56% ±31.8 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2) | 159 | 78.54% ±26.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2?window=all) | 159 | 78.54% ±26.6 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $311 518,942 BUX | 3.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $301 501,432 BUX | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $46.13 76,852 BUX | 21.2% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.79× | | [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $19.52 32,520 BUX | 13.0% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $18.91 31,504 BUX | 17.3% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $10.63 17,709 BUX | 9.8% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 15.0% | $9.67 16,110 BUX | 16.6% | 25 | 23.8 | 1.05× | | [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 17.0% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 8.8% | 27 | 27.0 | 1.00× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Rising Skull graffiti · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-rising-skull) | 20.0% | $1.57 2,615 BUX | 3.6% | 44 | 31.8 | 1.38× | | [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) | 22.0% | $1.08 1,799 BUX | 2.7% | 27 | 35.0 | 0.77× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb2) [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-deaths-head-factory-new) Hidden $9.69 16,141 BUX $18.91 31,504 BUX 1.95x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Rising Skull graffiti · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-rising-skull) Hidden $9.69 16,141 BUX $1.57 2,615 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) Hidden $9.69 16,141 BUX $9.67 16,110 BUX 1.00x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $9.69 16,141 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) Hidden $9.69 16,141 BUX $9.67 16,110 BUX 1.00x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.69 16,141 BUX $19.52 32,520 BUX 2.01x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) Hidden $9.69 16,141 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 0.46x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) [Kronerkongen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Kronerkongen) $9.69 16,141 BUX $1.08 1,799 BUX 0.11x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) Hidden $9.69 16,141 BUX $9.67 16,110 BUX 1.00x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Rising Skull graffiti · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-rising-skull) Hidden $9.69 16,141 BUX $1.57 2,615 BUX 0.16x 2026-11-11 14:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $9.69 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 37.1% extraordinary 0.1% covert 4.0% blue 5.8% restricted 8.0% violet 25.0% Remarkable 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt