--- title: "Arcane Aura case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arcane Aura ($14.10) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 117.42% over 47 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:31Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Arcane Aura](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Arcane Aura A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4?window=all) Price · $14.10 · 23,484 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $12.69 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 117.42% · 47 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 28 openings · below min 30 days · 47 openings · below min since tracking started · 47 openings · below min 39.5% 102.7% 166.0% **Small sample.** 47 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4?window=7d) | 28 | 102.11% ±62.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4) | 47 | 117.42% ±48.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4?window=all) | 47 | 117.42% ±48.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $117 194,588 BUX | 9.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $88.99 148,257 BUX | 17.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $81.48 135,745 BUX | 19.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.13× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $57.59 95,944 BUX | 15.9% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $29.71 49,496 BUX | 11.7% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) | 1 in 25 | $20.12 33,519 BUX | 6.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $5.47 9,113 BUX | 10.8% | 15 | 11.8 | 1.28× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 28.0% | $2.47 4,115 BUX | 5.5% | 13 | 13.2 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) | 28.0% | $1.73 2,882 BUX | 3.8% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.84× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb4) [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.10 23,484 BUX $5.47 9,113 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $14.10 23,484 BUX $2.47 4,115 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $14.10 23,484 BUX $2.47 4,115 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) [makarass](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/makarass) $14.10 23,484 BUX $2.47 4,115 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-10 19:23 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $14.10 23,484 BUX $2.47 4,115 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $14.10 23,484 BUX $2.47 4,115 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Lotus (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lotus-glitter) Hidden $14.10 23,484 BUX $1.73 2,882 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $14.10 23,484 BUX $5.47 9,113 BUX 0.39x 2026-11-09 19:04 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $14.10 23,484 BUX $2.47 4,115 BUX 0.18x 2026-11-09 18:41 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-well-worn) Hidden $14.10 23,484 BUX $57.59 95,944 BUX 4.09x 2026-11-09 18:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $14.10 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.5% extraordinary 7.5% classified 5.0% Legendary 25.0% Mil Spec Grade 28.0% remarkable 28.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt