--- title: "Mountain Passage case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mountain Passage ($8.48) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 121.82% over 152 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Mountain Passage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Mountain Passage A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5?window=all) Price · $8.48 · 14,127 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $7.63 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 121.82% · 152 openings, odds method Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 72 openings · below min 30 days · 121.82% ±36.99 152 openings since tracking started · 121.82% ±36.99 152 openings 84.0% 157.3% 230.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5?window=7d) | 72 | 175.93% ±53.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5) | 152 | 121.82% ±37.0 | +1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5?window=all) | 152 | 121.82% ±37.0 | +1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 152 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $527 878,231 BUX | 6.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $94.80 157,936 BUX | 11.2% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.46× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 15.0% | $22.84 38,051 BUX | 44.9% | 18 | 22.8 | 0.79× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) | 18.0% | $4.80 7,996 BUX | 11.3% | 31 | 27.4 | 1.13× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-well-worn) | 20.0% | $4.18 6,963 BUX | 11.0% | 30 | 30.4 | 0.99× | | [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-factory-new) | 22.0% | $3.12 5,197 BUX | 9.0% | 31 | 33.4 | 0.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 24.0% | $1.83 3,048 BUX | 5.8% | 39 | 36.5 | 1.07× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $527 878,231 BUX 62.17x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb5) [P250 | Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $4.80 7,996 BUX 0.57x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $1.83 3,048 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [P250 | Red Rock (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-field-tested) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $4.80 7,996 BUX 0.57x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) [makarass](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/makarass) $8.48 14,127 BUX $22.84 38,051 BUX 2.69x 2026-11-10 19:26 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $1.83 3,048 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $527 878,231 BUX 62.17x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $1.83 3,048 BUX 0.22x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) [makarass](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/makarass) $8.48 14,127 BUX $22.84 38,051 BUX 2.69x 2026-11-10 18:53 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $22.84 38,051 BUX 2.69x 2026-11-10 01:06 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $8.48 14,127 BUX $22.84 38,051 BUX 2.69x 2026-11-10 01:06 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $8.48 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.1% Covert 0.9% violet 18.0% #4b69ff 20.0% industrial 46.0% best hit $527 (62.17x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt