--- title: "Money Heist case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Money Heist ($6.67) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 92.60% over 2,078 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:00Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Money Heist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Money Heist A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6?window=all) Price · $6.67 · 11,110 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $6.00 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.60% · 2,078 openings, odds method Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.47% ±18.85 407 openings 7 days · 89.58% ±11.37 1,118 openings 30 days · 92.60% ±8.34 2,078 openings since tracking started · 92.60% ±8.34 2,078 openings 66.0% 85.5% 105.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6?window=24h) | 407 | 85.47% ±18.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6?window=7d) | 1,118 | 89.58% ±11.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6) | 2,078 | 92.60% ±8.34 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6?window=all) | 2,078 | 92.60% ±8.34 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,078 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $186 310,425 BUX | 3.1% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $165 274,523 BUX | 4.1% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $35.20 58,643 BUX | 19.5% | 76 | 69.2 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $33.90 56,477 BUX | 18.8% | 74 | 69.2 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $32.88 54,778 BUX | 18.2% | 79 | 69.2 | 1.14× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.87 18,109 BUX | 14.5% | 157 | 166.2 | 0.94× | | [Sticker \| Poorly Drawn Terrorist (Holo) sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-terrorist-holo) | 13.0% | $3.64 6,064 BUX | 7.9% | 241 | 270.1 | 0.89× | | [MP7 \| Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.18 3,631 BUX | 5.4% | 337 | 311.7 | 1.08× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 23.8% | $1.36 2,265 BUX | 5.4% | 509 | 493.7 | 1.03× | | [Dual Berettas \| Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-well-worn) | 30.0% | $0.60 999 BUX | 3.0% | 601 | 623.4 | 0.96× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb6) [MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) Hidden $6.67 11,110 BUX $2.18 3,631 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-well-worn) Hidden $6.67 11,110 BUX $0.60 999 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-well-worn) Hidden $6.67 11,110 BUX $0.60 999 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-well-worn) [Puzamah](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Puzamah) $6.67 11,110 BUX $0.60 999 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-12 03:12 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) Hidden $6.67 11,110 BUX $10.87 18,109 BUX 1.63x 2026-11-12 00:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-well-worn) Hidden $6.67 11,110 BUX $0.60 999 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-12 00:02 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-factory-new) [HALAMADRID](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/HALAMADRID) $6.67 11,110 BUX $10.87 18,109 BUX 1.63x 2026-11-12 00:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-well-worn) Hidden $6.67 11,110 BUX $0.60 999 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [MP7 | Vault Heist (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-vault-heist-factory-new) Hidden $6.67 11,110 BUX $2.18 3,631 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC [Dual Berettas | Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-well-worn) Hidden $6.67 11,110 BUX $0.60 999 BUX 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $6.67 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% restricted 3.3% covert 3.3% Mythical 3.3% mil spec 8.0% Remarkable 13.0% industrial 15.0% classified 23.8% Consumer Grade 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt