--- title: "Solar Flare case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Solar Flare ($12.67) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 96.98% over 112 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Solar Flare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Solar Flare A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8?window=all) Price · $12.67 · 21,112 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.41 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.98% · 112 openings, odds method Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 82 openings · below min 30 days · 96.98% ±34.82 112 openings since tracking started · 96.98% ±34.82 112 openings -0.5% 77.0% 154.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8?window=24h) | 12 | 47.58% ±106.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8?window=7d) | 82 | 109.71% ±40.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8) | 112 | 96.98% ±34.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8?window=all) | 112 | 96.98% ±34.8 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $525 875,033 BUX | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $153 255,031 BUX | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $120 199,203 BUX | 5.2% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $62.66 104,391 BUX | 22.0% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.34× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $34.74 57,876 BUX | 15.2% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.07× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 30.0% | $9.83 16,376 BUX | 25.9% | 26 | 33.6 | 0.77× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 60.0% | $4.13 6,880 BUX | 21.7% | 72 | 67.2 | 1.07× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb8) [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) Hidden $12.67 21,112 BUX $9.83 16,376 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) Hidden $12.67 21,112 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) Hidden $12.67 21,112 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $12.67 21,112 BUX $9.83 16,376 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 21:34 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) Hidden $12.67 21,112 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) Hidden $12.67 21,112 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) Hidden $12.67 21,112 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) [kdeen](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/kdeen) $12.67 21,112 BUX $9.83 16,376 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 20:56 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) Hidden $12.67 21,112 BUX $9.83 16,376 BUX 0.78x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC [MP9 | Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) Hidden $12.67 21,112 BUX $4.13 6,880 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 20:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $12.67 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 5.1% covert 0.4% Restricted 0.5% extraordinary 4.0% classified 30.0% mil spec 60.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt