--- title: "Elemental Equilibrium case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Elemental Equilibrium ($77.21) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds, observed 98.25% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Elemental Equilibrium](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Elemental Equilibrium A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9?window=all) Price · $77.21 · 128,637 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $69.49 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.25% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 40.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 72.0% 105.0% 138.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 8.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9?window=7d) | 16 | 108.70% ±28.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9) | 20 | 98.25% ±25.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9?window=all) | 20 | 98.25% ±25.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| KrizzeN (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-krizzen-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 33 | $236 393,859 BUX | 10.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $217 361,705 BUX | 9.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) | 20.0% | $96.98 161,568 BUX | 27.9% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $70.66 117,719 BUX | 14.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $45.81 76,319 BUX | 19.8% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 30.0% | $42.85 71,388 BUX | 18.5% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.17× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eb9) [FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) Hidden $77.21 128,637 BUX $96.98 161,568 BUX 1.26x 2026-11-07 07:51 UTC [FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) Hidden $77.21 128,637 BUX $96.98 161,568 BUX 1.26x 2026-11-07 07:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $77.21 128,637 BUX $42.85 71,388 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-07 07:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) [fazzxn](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/fazzxn) $77.21 128,637 BUX $42.85 71,388 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-07 07:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $77.21 128,637 BUX $42.85 71,388 BUX 0.55x 2026-11-07 07:51 UTC [FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) Hidden $77.21 128,637 BUX $96.98 161,568 BUX 1.26x 2026-11-07 07:51 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $77.21 128,637 BUX $45.81 76,319 BUX 0.59x 2026-11-07 07:51 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) [fazzxn](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/fazzxn) $77.21 128,637 BUX $70.66 117,719 BUX 0.92x 2026-11-07 07:51 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $77.21 128,637 BUX $45.81 76,319 BUX 0.59x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC [FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) Hidden $77.21 128,637 BUX $96.98 161,568 BUX 1.26x 2026-11-06 18:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $77.21 | 90.00% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Extraordinary 3.0% covert 33.0% classified 20.0% restricted 14.0% Legendary 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt