--- title: "Silversmith's Selection on 500 Casino: odds & RTP" description: "Silversmith's Selection ($11.36) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.79% over 109 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd rendered: 2026-11-12T06:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Silversmith's Selection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Silversmith's Selection A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd?window=all) Price · $11.36 · 18,928 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $10.23 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.79% · 109 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 69 openings · below min 30 days · 90.79% ±31.59 109 openings since tracking started · 90.79% ±31.59 109 openings 58.0% 268.5% 479.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd?window=24h) | 4 | 313.69% ±164.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd?window=7d) | 69 | 98.44% ±39.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd) | 109 | 90.79% ±31.6 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd?window=all) | 109 | 90.79% ±31.6 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 109 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $117 194,755 BUX | 28.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× | | [P2000 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $29.98 49,946 BUX | 24.9% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× | | [Patch \| Metal Silver Demon patch · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-silver-demon) | 10.5% | $18.08 30,121 BUX | 18.6% | 16 | 11.4 | 1.40× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-silver-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $10.18 16,959 BUX | 12.9% | 18 | 14.2 | 1.27× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 15.0% | $3.79 6,314 BUX | 5.6% | 17 | 16.3 | 1.04× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) | 15.5% | $2.82 4,698 BUX | 4.3% | 10 | 16.9 | 0.59× | | [Sticker \| Silver (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-silver-foil) | 16.5% | $1.67 2,782 BUX | 2.7% | 17 | 18.0 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) | 18.5% | $1.36 2,265 BUX | 2.5% | 20 | 20.2 | 0.99× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ebd) [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $11.36 18,928 BUX $3.79 6,314 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Patch | Metal Silver Demon patch · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-silver-demon) Hidden $11.36 18,928 BUX $18.08 30,121 BUX 1.59x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $11.36 18,928 BUX $3.79 6,314 BUX 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Souvenir Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) [Meow](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Meow) $11.36 18,928 BUX $117 194,755 BUX 10.29x 2026-11-11 17:03 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Silver (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-silver-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.36 18,928 BUX $10.18 16,959 BUX 0.90x 2026-11-09 21:22 UTC [Patch | Metal Silver Demon patch · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-silver-demon) [Dendak](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Dendak) $11.36 18,928 BUX $18.08 30,121 BUX 1.59x 2026-11-09 21:22 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) Hidden $11.36 18,928 BUX $1.36 2,265 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC [Patch | Metal Silver Demon patch · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-metal-silver-demon) Hidden $11.36 18,928 BUX $18.08 30,121 BUX 1.59x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC [P2000 | Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.36 18,928 BUX $29.98 49,946 BUX 2.64x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) [Caetanomaster](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Caetanomaster) $11.36 18,928 BUX $1.36 2,265 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $11.36 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Mil Spec Grade 2.5% mil spec 8.5% Exotic 10.5% Industrial Grade 13.0% #4b69ff 15.0% industrial 15.5% exotic 16.5% Rare 18.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt