--- title: "Scorching Secrets case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Scorching Secrets ($360.96) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda rendered: 2026-11-12T07:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Scorching Secrets](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Scorching Secrets A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda?window=all) Price · $360.96 · 601,353 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $324.86 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Anvil (Adamantium) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/anvil-adamantium) | 1 in 200 | $9,999 16,658,334 BUX | 15.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Precious Stones of Quartz (Quartz Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stones-of-quartz-quartz-gemstone) | 1 in 67 | $4,371 7,281,750 BUX | 20.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Magic Wand (Uranium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-wand-uranium) | 1 in 29 | $1,600 2,665,600 BUX | 17.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Prism (Adamantium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-adamantium) | 1 in 13 | $720 1,200,000 BUX | 16.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Lots Of Portions Of Meteorite (Debris) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-portions-of-meteorite-debris) | 1 in 12 | $577 960,960 BUX | 15.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Bars Of Copper (Metal) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/bars-of-copper-metal) | 12.5% | $176 293,130 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sunburst Scepter (Sapphire) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sunburst-scepter-sapphire) | 14.0% | $135 224,910 BUX | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Bronze Selfie Stick other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/bronze-selfie-stick) | 52.0% | $18.00 29,988 BUX | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9eda) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $361 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 0.5% Classified 1.5% Covert 11.0% Special 8.5% Consumer Grade 12.5% Mil Spec Grade 14.0% Restricted 52.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt