--- title: "Holiday Treasures case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Holiday Treasures ($362.79) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 1.96% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd rendered: 2026-11-12T06:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Holiday Treasures](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Holiday Treasures A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd?window=all) Price · $362.79 · 604,406 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $326.51 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 1.96% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 16.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 200.5% 401.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd?window=24h) | 4 | 1.96% ±399.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd?window=7d) | 4 | 1.96% ±399.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd) | 4 | 1.96% ±399.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd?window=all) | 4 | 1.96% ±399.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Earring (Emerald) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/earring-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $25K 41,650,000 BUX | 15.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Picture Frame (Sapphire) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/picture-frame-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $9,000 14,994,000 BUX | 27.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rocks Of Jasper (Silica Mineral) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-jasper-silica-mineral) | 1 in 40 | $2,467 4,109,600 BUX | 18.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Bracelet (Sapphire) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/bracelet-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $890 1,482,740 BUX | 13.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Pegasus Prism (Pearl) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pegasus-prism-pearl) | 1 in 15 | $700 1,166,200 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Limited Edition Coin (Adamantium) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/limited-edition-coin-adamantium) | 10.0% | $230 383,180 BUX | 7.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Small Nugget (Gold) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/small-nugget-gold) | 15.0% | $47.00 78,302 BUX | 2.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Ring (Ruby) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ring-ruby) | 20.0% | $15.00 24,990 BUX | 0.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Memento (Moonstone) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/memento-moonstone) | 39.8% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edd) [Memento (Moonstone) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/memento-moonstone) Hidden $363 604,406 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [Memento (Moonstone) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/memento-moonstone) Hidden $363 604,406 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [Ring (Ruby) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ring-ruby) Hidden $363 604,406 BUX $15.00 24,990 BUX 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [Memento (Moonstone) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/memento-moonstone) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $363 604,406 BUX $4.50 7,497 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $363 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 25.2% Special 1.0% Classified 7.5% Covert 6.5% Mil Spec Grade 20.0% Consumer Grade 39.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt