--- title: "Festival of Renewal case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Festival of Renewal ($366.06) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 131.27% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede rendered: 2026-11-12T07:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Festival of Renewal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Festival of Renewal A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede?window=all) Price · $366.06 · 609,861 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $329.46 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 131.27% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min 25.0% 131.3% 237.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede?window=24h) | 8 | 131.27% ±105.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede?window=7d) | 8 | 131.27% ±105.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede) | 8 | 131.27% ±105.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede?window=all) | 8 | 131.27% ±105.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Fountain of Fortune (Fluorite) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-of-fortune-fluorite) | 1 in 40 | $2,700 4,498,200 BUX | 20.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Gauntlet of Galaxies (Garnet) other · Exceedingly Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/gauntlet-of-galaxies-garnet) | 1 in 15 | $1,250 2,082,500 BUX | 24.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Halo of Hyperion (Heliodor) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/halo-of-hyperion-heliodor) | 1 in 13 | $1,000 1,666,000 BUX | 22.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) | 1 in 13 | $800 1,332,000 BUX | 19.4% | 4 | 0.6 | — | | [Titan Totem (Titanium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/titan-totem-titanium) | 11.5% | $300 499,800 BUX | 10.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) | 15.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 2.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) | 20.0% | $3.25 5,415 BUX | 0.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [Chocolate gold coin (Gold) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chocolate-gold-coin-gold) | 29.0% | $0.50 833 BUX | 0.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $366 609,861 BUX $800 1,332,000 BUX 2.18x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $800 1,332,000 BUX 2.18x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $800 1,332,000 BUX 2.18x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $800 1,332,000 BUX 2.18x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ede) [Silver Sunflower other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-sunflower) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $3.25 5,415 BUX 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $800 1,332,000 BUX 2.18x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $43.00 71,638 BUX 0.12x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $366 609,861 BUX $800 1,332,000 BUX 2.18x 2026-11-11 14:30 UTC [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $800 1,332,000 BUX 2.18x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [Pieces Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pieces-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $800 1,332,000 BUX 2.18x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [Titan Totem (Titanium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/titan-totem-titanium) Hidden $366 609,861 BUX $300 499,800 BUX 0.82x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [Titan Totem (Titanium) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/titan-totem-titanium) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $366 609,861 BUX $300 499,800 BUX 0.82x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $366 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Exceedingly Rare 9.0% Special 19.0% Classified 8.0% Consumer Grade 64.0% best hit $800 (2.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt