---
title: "Molten Mystery case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Molten Mystery ($232.05) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf
rendered: 2026-11-12T06:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Molten Mystery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Molten Mystery

A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf?window=all)

Price · $232.05 · 386,592 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $208.84 from 7 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 10.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Lots Of Rocks Of Obsidian (Silica Mineral) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-rocks-of-obsidian-silica-mineral) | 1 in 133 | $7,662 12,765,000 BUX | 27.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Rock Of Obsidian (Silica Mineral) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/rock-of-obsidian-silica-mineral) | 1 in 20 | $1,627 2,711,175 BUX | 39.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Prism (Platinum) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/prism-platinum) | 1 in 14 | $599 997,934 BUX | 20.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Oracle Orb (Obsidian) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/oracle-orb-obsidian) | 12.5% | $165 274,890 BUX | 9.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Obelisk (Obsidian) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/obelisk-obsidian) | 17.8% | $34.00 56,644 BUX | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Lots Of Parts of Stone (Rock) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-parts-of-stone-rock) | 28.0% | $3.00 5,000 BUX | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Ornament (Obsidian) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ornament-obsidian) | 29.0% | $2.00 3,332 BUX | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9edf)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $232 | 90.00% | 7 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Classified 12.8% Restricted 12.5% Industrial Grade 17.8% Mil Spec Grade 28.0% Consumer Grade 29.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt