--- title: "Serene Waters case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Serene Waters ($126.27) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 9.29% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0 rendered: 2026-11-12T08:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Serene Waters](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Serene Waters A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0?window=all) Price · $126.27 · 210,364 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $113.64 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 9.29% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 15.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 198.5% 397.5% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0?window=7d) | 4 | 9.29% ±387.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0) | 4 | 9.29% ±387.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0?window=all) | 4 | 9.29% ±387.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Lots Of Precious Stones Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-precious-stones-of-zircon-quartz) | 1 in 400 | $9,112 15,180,000 BUX | 20.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Lots Of Precious Stones Of Aquamarine (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-precious-stones-of-aquamarine-gemstone) | 1 in 133 | $2,101 3,500,000 BUX | 13.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rocks Of Turquoise (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-turquoise-silica-mineral) | 10.5% | $417 694,400 BUX | 38.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Lots Of Gems Of Zircon (Quartz) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-gems-of-zircon-quartz) | 12.0% | $161 268,488 BUX | 17.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Amulet (Aquamarine) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-aquamarine) | 15.5% | $42.00 69,972 BUX | 5.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Knife (Aquamarine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-aquamarine) | 18.0% | $18.25 30,405 BUX | 2.9% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [Amalgam (Aquamarine) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amalgam-aquamarine) | 21.0% | $8.00 13,328 BUX | 1.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Arrowhead (Aquamarine) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrowhead-aquamarine) | 22.0% | $2.40 3,998 BUX | 0.5% | 1 | 0.9 | — | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee0) [Knife (Aquamarine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-aquamarine) Hidden $126 210,364 BUX $18.25 30,405 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Amalgam (Aquamarine) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/amalgam-aquamarine) Hidden $126 210,364 BUX $8.00 13,328 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Arrowhead (Aquamarine) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/arrowhead-aquamarine) Hidden $126 210,364 BUX $2.40 3,998 BUX 0.02x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Knife (Aquamarine) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/knife-aquamarine) Hidden $126 210,364 BUX $18.25 30,405 BUX 0.14x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $126 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 13.0% Mil Spec Grade 28.5% Restricted 15.5% Industrial Grade 21.0% Consumer Grade 22.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt