---
title: "Desert Discoveries case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Desert Discoveries ($163.26) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1
rendered: 2026-11-12T08:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Desert Discoveries](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1)

# [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Desert Discoveries

A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1?window=all)

Price · $163.26 · 271,998 BUX

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $146.94 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 26.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 77 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Rocks Of Moonstone (Silica Mineral) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/rocks-of-moonstone-silica-mineral) | 1 in 77 | $7,450 12,411,000 BUX | 65.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Mystical Monolith (Moonstone) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mystical-monolith-moonstone) | 15.2% | $240 399,840 BUX | 24.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Wire Sculpture (Copper) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/wire-sculpture-copper) | 15.0% | $69.00 114,954 BUX | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Medallion (Bronze) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/medallion-bronze) | 17.5% | $13.33 22,200 BUX | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Memento (Moonstone) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/memento-moonstone) | 20.0% | $4.50 7,497 BUX | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Copper Clad Coin other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/copper-clad-coin) | 31.0% | $0.10 167 BUX | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ee1)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:48 UTC | $163 | 90.00% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 31.5% Mil Spec Grade 17.5% Consumer Grade 51.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt