--- title: "Cyclone Collection case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Cyclone Collection ($70.49) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 74.10% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1 rendered: 2026-11-12T07:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Cyclone Collection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Cyclone Collection A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1?window=all) Price · $70.49 · 117,437 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $63.44 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.10% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 19.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 188.5% 377.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1?window=7d) | 8 | 74.10% ±302.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1) | 8 | 74.10% ±302.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1?window=all) | 8 | 74.10% ±302.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Amulet of Atlantis (Amethyst) other · Special](https://gambatracker.com/items/amulet-of-atlantis-amethyst) | 1 in 200 | $3,884 6,470,694 BUX | 30.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Precious Stones of Aquamarine (Gemstone) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/precious-stones-of-aquamarine-gemstone) | 1 in 50 | $1,010 1,682,625 BUX | 31.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Lots Of Rocks Of Agate (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-rocks-of-agate-silica-mineral) | 1 in 40 | $300 500,000 BUX | 11.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Wire Sculpture (Copper) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/wire-sculpture-copper) | 1 in 13 | $69.00 114,954 BUX | 8.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Chalice (Cobalt) other · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/chalice-cobalt) | 10.0% | $43.00 71,638 BUX | 6.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Fountain (Fluorite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-fluorite) | 15.0% | $30.00 49,980 BUX | 7.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Titanium Teardrop other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-teardrop) | 62.5% | $3.75 6,248 BUX | 3.7% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef1) [Titanium Teardrop other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-teardrop) Hidden $70.49 117,437 BUX $3.75 6,248 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Wire Sculpture (Copper) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/wire-sculpture-copper) Hidden $70.49 117,437 BUX $69.00 114,954 BUX 0.98x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Titanium Teardrop other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-teardrop) Hidden $70.49 117,437 BUX $3.75 6,248 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Lots Of Rocks Of Agate (Silica Mineral) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lots-of-rocks-of-agate-silica-mineral) [Paper Bag](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Paper%20Bag) $70.49 117,437 BUX $300 500,000 BUX 4.26x 2026-11-10 06:55 UTC [Titanium Teardrop other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-teardrop) Hidden $70.49 117,437 BUX $3.75 6,248 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 00:00 UTC [Fountain (Fluorite) other · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/fountain-fluorite) Hidden $70.49 117,437 BUX $30.00 49,980 BUX 0.43x 2026-11-09 00:00 UTC [Titanium Teardrop other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-teardrop) Hidden $70.49 117,437 BUX $3.75 6,248 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 00:00 UTC [Titanium Teardrop other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/titanium-teardrop) [Ilol2k](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Ilol2k) $70.49 117,437 BUX $3.75 6,248 BUX 0.05x 2026-11-09 00:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $70.49 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Special 0.5% Classified 2.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.5% Covert 7.5% Consumer Grade 10.0% Industrial Grade 15.0% Restricted 62.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt