--- title: "Pine Puzzle case on 500 Casino: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pine Puzzle ($62.98) on 500 Casino, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 53.01% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2 rendered: 2026-11-12T05:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) / [Pine Puzzle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2) # [500 Casino](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/500-casino) · Pine Puzzle A case on 500 Casino (500), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2?window=all) Price · $62.98 · 104,927 BUX Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $56.68 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.01% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 106.5% 213.5% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2?window=7d) | 6 | 69.59% ±143.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2) | 18 | 53.01% ±82.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/500-casino/6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2?window=all) | 18 | 53.01% ±82.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Coin (Gold) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/coin-gold) | 1 in 100 | $649 1,081,234 BUX | 11.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Chef's knife (Adamantium) other · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/chefs-knife-adamantium) | 1 in 67 | $549 914,634 BUX | 14.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Lunar Locket (Lapis Lazuli) other · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/lunar-locket-lapis-lazuli) | 1 in 50 | $375 624,750 BUX | 13.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Palace Pendant (Peridot) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-pendant-peridot) | 1 in 25 | $200 333,200 BUX | 14.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Tiny tiara (Diamond) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiny-tiara-diamond) | 1 in 17 | $149 248,234 BUX | 15.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× | | [Playing Cards (Titanium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/playing-cards-titanium) | 15.0% | $98.00 163,268 BUX | 25.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [Scraps Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scraps-of-bamboo-wood) | 70.5% | $4.00 6,660 BUX | 5.0% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.10× | Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `500-casino:cases/list`, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=500-casino&case=6617ee4702ecb2b8af8a9ef2) [Scraps Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scraps-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $62.98 104,927 BUX $4.00 6,660 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-08 15:39 UTC [Scraps Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scraps-of-bamboo-wood) [Neimiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/500-casino/Neimiii) $62.98 104,927 BUX $4.00 6,660 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-08 15:39 UTC [Scraps Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scraps-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $62.98 104,927 BUX $4.00 6,660 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Tiny tiara (Diamond) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiny-tiara-diamond) Hidden $62.98 104,927 BUX $149 248,234 BUX 2.37x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Scraps Of Bamboo (Wood) other · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scraps-of-bamboo-wood) Hidden $62.98 104,927 BUX $4.00 6,660 BUX 0.06x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC [Playing Cards (Titanium) other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/playing-cards-titanium) Hidden $62.98 104,927 BUX $98.00 163,268 BUX 1.56x 2026-11-05 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 22:26 UTC | $62.98 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Covert 20.0% Restricted 1.5% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% Classified 76.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt